Flipping the coins of life

Are you right just because you got heads?

Thursday December 28, 2023


Assume you flip a coin 5 times and get heads 5 times. You’re going pretty well!

But are you?

A normal coin has 50% chance of heads. Chances of 5 heads in a row is ~3/100. It’s not nothing. But over time this will average to 50%, if you flip 10000 times.

Decisions are rarely black and whites despite how we choice to say “that was a bad decision”. The outcome doesn’t determine the quality of the decision.

You chose to flip a coin, and not roll a dice. You didn’t roll a 32 sided die either.

Focus on choice that maximize probability. This is the decision.


Bryan lives somewhere at the intersection of faith, fatherhood, and futurism and writes about tech, books, Christianity, gratitude, and whatever’s on his mind. If you liked reading, perhaps you’ll also like subscribing: